SUBJECT: NYET MEANS NYET

RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES

In January 2008, William Burns, the U. S. Ambassador to Russia at the time, sent a classified cable to Washington in which he summarized Russia’s concerns about NATO expansion. The subject line, “Nyet means Nyet,” or “No means No,” conveyed in a single word Burns’ belief that NATO expansion into Ukraine was “brightest of all redlines” for Russia.

Thanks to Julian Assange and Wikileaks, the cable is in the public domain.

Burns wrote:

1. (C) Summary. Following a muted first reaction to
Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)
at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and
other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition,
stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion
as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement,
particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic"
issue for Russia…”

5. (C) Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch
a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about
the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does
Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine
Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears
unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would
seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us
that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions
in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the
ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a
major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In
that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to
intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

That was 15 years ago. Condoleeza Rice was the Secretary of State. Robert Gates was the Secretary of Defense.

Last August, in a piece entitled “We Always Knew About the Dangers of NATO Expansion,” Ted Snider wrote:

“[Burns] warned Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that ‘I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.’ Short even of expansion into Ukraine, Burns called NATO expansion into Eastern Europe ‘premature at best, and needlessly provocative at worst.’ If it came to Ukraine, Burns warned, ‘There could be no doubt that Putin would fight back hard.’

And this week at Scheerpost, Dave DeCamp writes:

“Gates previously recognized that NATO’s eastward expansion and attempts to absorb Ukraine might provoke Russia. In his memoir, published in 2014, Gates said, ‘trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching’ and added that it was ‘recklessly ignoring what the Russians considered their own vital national interests.’

Robert Burns is now the Director of the CIA.

And Condoleeza Rice and Robert Gates are calling for a “dramatic” escalation of the war against Russia.

Reckless yet again.